High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model

Published on 2019-01-31T02:36:58Z (GMT) by Yuerong Zhou
<p>As urban population is forecast to exceed 60% of the world’s population by 2050, urban growth can be expected. However, research on spatial projections of urban growth at a global scale are limited. We constructed a framework to project global urban growth based on the SLEUTH urban growth model and a database with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds containing urban growth probabilities from 2020 to 2050. Using the historical distribution of the global population from LandScan<sup>TM</sup> as a proxy for urban land cover, the SLEUTH model was calibrated for the period from 2000 to 2013. This model simulates urban growth using two layers of 50 arc-minutes grids encompassing global urban regions. While varying growth rates are observed in each urban area, the global urban cover is forecast to reach 1.7×10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> by 2050, which is approximately 1.4 times that of the year 2012. A global urban growth database is essential for future environmental planning and assessments, as well as numerical investigations of future urban climates.</p>

Cite this collection

Zhou, Yuerong; Varquez, Alvin Christopher Galang; Kanda, Manabu (2019): High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model. University of Melbourne. Collection.