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Proportional Return of Interventions: Cost- Effective Surveillance for the Early Detection of Gypsy Moth

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posted on 07.11.2022, 00:08 authored by Natasha Page, TOM KOMPASTOM KOMPAS, Michael D. Ormsby, ANDREW ROBINSONANDREW ROBINSON

This report covers a fourth year of work, building on work completed in previous years for CEBRA projects 170621 and 1606E. The first and second years of the project established a framework for representing the biosecurity system across three main areas (pre-border, border and post-border) with four main pathways (craft, cargo, mail and passenger) overlaid with the seven groups of biosecurity risk assessment/management activities as identified in Schneider et al. (2020) - (Anticipate, Prevent, Screen, Prepare, Detect, Respond and Recover). The third year of the project tested and finalised the biological component (i.e. estimates of risk reduction across intervention activities of the system) of the risk decision support tool by running a selected set of five priority pests identified by MPI through the matrix. This final stage of the project looks at overlaying an economic cost of interventions to provide an overview of the greatest return (risk reduction) on investment. We consider the post border activities in particular and propose a model for assessing the optimal surveillance of a pest using traps. We apply
this to a case study of Gypsy Moth but it may be applied to a number of other pests on MPI’s priority list such as fruit flies (e.g. Queensland Fruit Fly, Oriental Fruit Fly, Medfly), ants (e.g. Red Imported Fire Ant) and other moths (e.g. Nun Moth, Painted Apple Moth) for which traps are also used for surveillance. Published 16 August, 2022.

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